Tuesday, May 1, 2007

May Day

The major tactical news in the French presidential election today was Jean-Marie Le Pen's announcement calling on his followers to "abstain massively" from second round voting. Many analysts had already been assuming his 11% first-round tally would go to Nicolas Sarkozy in the  second round, which I mentioned Saturday seemed premature to me. Le Pen's voters, especially the hardcore following that hasn't already defected to Sarkozy, are notoriously loyal. So this can only tighten up the race.

Something else that was clear from today's demonstrations: The common wisdom that this election will boil down to a referendum on Sarkozy, while exagerrated, is nevertheless based on a very large kernel of truth. There were anti-Sarko stickers, banners, and graffiti everywhere.

Also, while all of the unions maintained their policy of endorsing neither candidate, several of them made it clear that they were not at all enthused by Sarkozy's program, particularly his proposal to require rush hour service during any transport strike, one of the union's most potent weapons. So even if May Day is a gimme for the left (since it always falls between the two rounds during election years), this year it gave just a bit more.

Finally, Ségolène Royal held a major rally at a stadium on the outskirts of Paris, which I managed to wrangle a press pass for. I'll have more about it in an article I'm working on, but suffice it to say, the mood was impressive.

So all in all, a very good day for Royal, which I imagine puts her in pretty good position going into tomorrow's debate. She's still got to score some points, and avoid any major gaffes. But my gut feeling is that, contrary to the betting line, she's got a very strong chance of pulling this out. 

Posted by Judah in:  La Presidentielle   

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