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June, 2007Saturday, June 30, 2007 Quote Of The Day"It has long been apparent that Cheney's genius is that he lets George W. Bush get out of bed every morning actually believing he is the President." -- John W. Dean, on Cheney's use of process to usurp presidential powers. Friday, June 29, 2007 Calling LondonLondon police have just discovered a second car loaded with similar materials to the one found earlier today. This one had been towed away from a nearby street. For the time being, London has really dodged a bullet. Which means that all of us have dodged a bullet. I remember in the days following 9/11, how everyone here who knew I was American -- and anyone who didn't but who heard my accent -- made a point to tell me they were with us, and asked me to pass on to everyone at home that we weren't alone. So if there's anyone in London reading this, pass the word: You're not alone. We're with you. Friday, June 29, 2007 The Vanishing PresidencyWhen the dust ultimately settles on George W. Bush's presidency, will there be anything left, other than his bullhorn moment on the rubble of the Twin Towers, that we'll be able to point to as an accomplishment? Jimmy Carter largely failed through inaction -- that is harmlessly -- and he did manage to secure a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. Even Nixon, for all his abuses of power both at home and abroad, made historic diplomatic advances with both the Soviet Union and China. President Bush has managed to combine the worst aspects of both: Carter's lack of any positive accomplishments coupled with Nixon's assault on the rule of law. Throw in the dissipation of America's moral standing in the world and the erosion of our military capacity, and consider that -- unlike Carter, who never managed to rally his Congressional majority around his presidency -- Bush has managed this spotless record while enjoying sustained support from his party for his first six years in office, and it's truly a feat of Herculean proportions. Friday, June 29, 2007 The Ballad Of The Green BeretsI got to this article kind of late last night, so I linked to it without posting, but it really warrants some closer attention. It ostensibly focuses on how the military leadership of the Special Operations command will soon be rotated out, resulting in the appointment of senior officers who are committed to returning to traditional 'indirect' special operations tactics. But it's actually a pretty severe indictment of the ways in which the Bush administration has misused Special Forces in particular, and the military in general, in response to the attacks of 9/11. Despite their image, Special Forces have always placed a heavy emphasis on non-combat oriented interventions, especially with regard to counterinsurgency and counterterrorism:
But after 9/11, the Rumsfeld Dept. of Defense began to increasingly use Special Forces in combat operations, first in Afghanistan and then even more so in Iraq. In direct contradiction of the command's strategic doctrine, Bush and Rumsfeld have tried to "kill our way to victory". There's a trend right now to trace our failure in Iraq to an Army culture that never learned the counterinsurgency lessons of Vietnam. But some blame must also go to a civilian leadership that ignored the tools we did have in the toolkit, or tried to apply them to tasks they aren't appropriate for. The Bush administration's riposte to the attacks on 9/11 was driven more by political considerations than by strategic calculation. But while "Bring 'em on" and "Mission Accomplished" might have made for more virile, macho soundbites, the meticulous counterterrorism operations Bush and Rumsfeld mocked would have made for better policy. The proof lies in the comparison between the Philippines, where they were applied, and Iraq, where they weren't. Friday, June 29, 2007 Designer GenesIt's always surprised me that both critics and proponents of Intelligent Design overlook the fact that we ourselves are intelligently designing new forms of life. Which means that: a) it's certainly possible that life as we know it evolved from an intelligently designed antecedent; and b) that in no way proves that the intelligent designer was an omnipotent, morally flawless being. More likely, he (or she) was just a poor schlep in a lab coat on a distant planet, who forgot to wash his hands one day after work, thereby contaminating a soon-to-be-launched space probe with a new strain of bacteria he'd just come up with. Thursday, June 28, 2007 Measuring SuccessGen. David Petraeus' new strategy of going after "al-Qaeda in Iraq" in anticipation of an inevitable drawdown of American forces somehow manages to make perfect sense despite the fact that the justification he offers is at odds with everything we know about the situation on the ground. On the one hand, getting rid of as many non-Iraqi bad actors before we ourselves pull up stakes seems like a solid first step towards re-Iraqifying the civil war. It would also be madness to allow the jihadists -- who have undoubtedly taken advantage of the chaos and violence in Iraq to recruit and train new operatives -- to consolidate their strategic gains after we've left. But Petraeus seems to be suggesting that the violence taking place in Iraq is all the result of foreign agitators, and that eliminating them will eliminate sectarian violence as well:
Of course, the "Golden Mosque narrative" has already been debunked, so while the campaign against foreign agitators is strategically sound, it's just not for the reasons given. This little nugget, on the other hand, better explains some of the urgency behind the shift:
Now, we already know what happens to the logic of these kinds of "metrics" because we've seen them before. If the US military is targeting For the time being, Petraeus' team is avoiding overly optimistic appraisals. It will be interesting to see how much that changes as we approach September. Thursday, June 28, 2007 Bandar's CutFollowing the spate of stories this month about Tony Blair shutting down an investigation into BAE's greasing Prince Bandar's palm to the tune of $2 billion, the Justice Department has opened an investigation of its own. Ostensibly, they'll be trying to determine whether the funds that BAE pumped into a Stateside Saudi governmental account were for Bandar's personal use or for his official functions, as he claims. But the real question is, Why all the attention now? A friend of mine here, a Dutch ex-pat who worked on the original Yamamah contract in the 1980's auditing the construction component, told me that the kickbacks in general, and for Prince Bandar in particular, were common knowledge from the very beginning, to the point of being a running joke in the accounting department. It's also not the first time that investigations into the project were opened and closed. So, again, why an investigation into a business deal between two close allies, and why now? Thursday, June 28, 2007 Fool's ErrandThis is what I was talking about when I said it would be stupid for Tony Blair to accept the Quartet Middle East Envoy position, but even stupider to offer it to him. Update: This, too. Thursday, June 28, 2007 Sarko The GenerousAs promised, Nicolas Sarkozy just named a Socialist, Didier Migaud, to preside over the Parliament's Finance Commission (the French rough equivalent of the House Oversight Committee). Its president can demand audits and investigations of the government ministries, as well as refuse any legislative amendments that effect spending (ie. pork-barrel spending). As such, the position provides ample opportunity to interfere with the government's agenda, and this is the first time it has been offered to a member of the opposition. Needless to say, the PS has minimized the significance of the appointment, while Sarkozy's UMP has expressed its concern that it not be abused. The move needs to be understood on two levels. Previously, the only way the opposition could block the government's agenda was to call for a vote of censure, or no-confidence. Obviously, that's only effective if a sizable portion of the majority is in open revolt against the government as well. Individual laws can also be referred to the Constitutional Council, but their decision is not guaranteed. So in offering the position to the Socialists, Sarkozy has, as he claims, expanded the institutional status of the opposition. But it also reflects a classic Sarkozyian negotiating strategy. Namely, to make a concession that was not asked for as a conciliatory gesture, in order to strengthen his ability to demand the concessions he himself wants from his adversary later on. That way, in the event he ends up forcing his position through, he can always lay the blame on the other side's intransigence. It's also meant to directly challenge the image of Sarkozy as a dangerous authoritarian who can't be trusted. By putting the ball in the Socialists' court, he's reframed the debate. He still holds all the levers of power, but the question becomes whether the Socialists will adopt an obstructionist position, or a cooperative one. Wednesday, June 27, 2007 These Go To ElevenI just got back from Nîmes, where I saw a friend's band play in the city's 2000-year old Roman amphitheatre. The juxtaposition of ancient and modern was intentional. But it was still kind of weird to consider that men once fought to the death in the same arena to keep the masses entertained. Anyway, between hanging out the night before, the show itself, and the party afterwards, I didn't get much sleep the last few days. Also, it's admittedly been a while since I've been to a major concert, but it seems like the decibel level has gotten off the hook. All that by way of saying I'm wiped, so serious posting will have to wait till tomorrow. Monday, June 25, 2007 Open ThreadPosting will be light for the next few days. If you've run across anything interesting, pop it in the comments. I'll be back on Wednesday. Friday, June 22, 2007 Not So FastI dashed off an analysis of the Socialists' surprise comeback in second-round parliamentary voting last Sunday. But it was a bit short notice to get it placed anywhere. So in the interests of keeping you all well-informed about the ins and outs of French politics, I offer it to you here as a freebie:
It’s not quite “Dewey beats Truman”, given that they didn’t actually win the election. But in turning back the UMP’s forecasted “blue tsunami”, the Socialists did manage to take some of the polish off of Nicolas Sarkozy’s victory. Given up for dead just last week, the PS not only avoided a humiliating defeat that had seemed all but certain, they gained (along with their PRG allies) more than fifty seats over their 2002 results. Combined with the small Communist and Green delegations, they limited Sarkosy’s UMP and its allies on the right and center to a 60 percent parliamentary majority, instead of the predicted 70-75 percent. It’s a testament to how low expectations were that the results reinvigorated the Socialists’ flagging spirits. But while the second-round surge served as a political reprieve for the beleaguered party, it was unclear how lasting the impact would be on its longterm stability. It certainly did nothing to resolve the structural problems that make a clarification of ideology and leadership increasingly necessary. Split between a left-wing determined to preserve the party’s traditional progressive posture, and a social-democrat faction veering increasingly towards the electorally promising center, it seems the PS can only set aside its internal differences when faced with potential disaster. And even that for only short periods at a time, as demonstrated Sunday evening by a headline announcing in the same breath the separation of the party’s reigning power couple, Ségolène Royal and François Hollande, and Royal’s intention to succeed Hollande as party chairman. No sooner do the Socialists dodge a bullet, it seems, than they re-load the gun and take aim at their foot once again... Friday, June 22, 2007 leaving l.a.i finally left l.a. Friday, June 22, 2007 The HomefrontGiven what we know about how Special Operations units have been used abroad in the War on Terror, the fact that they're being incorporated into domestic anti-terrorism planning is more than a little troubling. I said yesterday that the logic behind their extra-legal methods is expansive. Unless there's more transparency as to what these units are authorized to do, this is a very dangerous precedent. Via Danger Room. Thursday, June 21, 2007 Afghan WomenOne of the major accomplishments of the invasion of Afghanistan was the impact it had on Afghan women. At least, that's what was supposed to happen. Of course, changing a culture isn't that easy, so it's no surprise that the results have left a lot to be desired. But keeping Afghanistan a priority might have made a difference. IRIN, an independent news outlet for the UN Office of Humanitarian Affairs, has produced a short film (about 20 minutes) illustrating some of the hardships Afghan women still face, including high rates of maternal mortality during childbirth, lack of education, and high rates of domestic violence and abuse. (WMP or RealPlayer. Or else here's the transcript.) We didn't create these problems. But we did suggest that we'd stick around long enough to help solve them. We let more than just Osama Bin Laden get away in Afghanistan. We also lost an opportunity to demonstrate that we were willing and able to help people rebuild. Thursday, June 21, 2007 The Blair Ditch ProjectOne problem with the idea of recycling Tony Blair as some sort of Middle East envoy is that, unless I've missed something, he doesn't have any credibility in that part of the world. Usually what you look for in a statesman/envoy is either an old hand with tons of diplomatic capital, or else a prominent politician coming off a winning streak. Blair doesn't qualify on either score. He's practically sneaking out of Downing Street by the back door, and he's regarded around the world as Bush's dupe. He'd be a fool to take the gig, but we'd be even more of a fool to offer it to him. Thursday, June 21, 2007 Living LargeApparently, a "mysterious guest" at the Paris air show is planning to buy an Airbus A380 for use as his "private limousine". Unit cost? $300 mil, as of 2006. Kind of gets the imagination going, doesn't it? Thursday, June 21, 2007 The Reality PrincipleHe doesn't quite formulate it this way, but it's reasonable to conclude from Gawdat Bahgat's article in the latest issue of Parameters that the price of stability in the Persian Gulf and Middle East is an acceptance of Iran's recent strategic gains and enhanced influence in the region. Now, this makes a lot of sense to me as a policy prescription, but also as an insight into why the Bush administration Iran hawks are so deadset against diplomatic engagement. Because the last thing they want is to concede the shift in strategic advantage that has taken place in the region over the last four years. What's odd about that, though, is that Iran's recent strategic gains and it's enhanced regional influence are both very real. Refusing to concede them is simply a state of denial. What's also obvious to anyone who's been paying attention is that brandishing the military option, far from being a sign of American strength, is a testament to the weakness of our current position. After the invasion of Afghanistan, the Iranians came to us with offers on the table because they feared the combined threat of American military capability backed by the legitimacy of global support. If they are playing hardball now, it's because they've accurately assessed that their relative position has been greatly strengthened, and ours weakened, by the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and southern Lebanon. The refusal to accept that the regional balance of power has shifted is not surprising, given the logic that underlies the neocon vision: America should defend its global hegemony by preventing its geopolitical rivals from developing into threats. It's an inherently comforting vision, suitable for a static world where we do in fact control all the outcomes. Accepting reality, though, works better for the world we actually live in. Reality now demands that we choose between another five years of high-intensity warfare followed by twenty to forty years of massive garrisons in the region -- with no real guarantee that we'll achieve our goals and a certainty that even if we do, China will have taken full advantage of our folly to leapfrog us as global superpower -- or else reaching an accomodation with Iran. That accomodation doesn't necessarily have to be a friendly one. It might even be based on the US serving as guarantor -- in the form of offshore, sub-launched nuclear warheads -- of a regional "mutually assured destruction" deterrant. But it's our best option for preserving our longterm strategic interests both in the region and the world. Thursday, June 21, 2007 President Bush's Revolutionary GuardMost of the jaw-dropping revelations from Seymour Hersh's latest article detailing Maj. General Antonio Taguba's investigation of the Abu Ghraib scandal have already been circulated widely. Certainly, the fallout the investigation had on Taguba's career is a tremendous injustice, and the possibility that Rumsfeld and the White House knowingly lied about when they first learned of the abuse ought to be investigated by Congress. But what I found as shocking and perhaps more significant is the extent to which, according to Hersh's sources, the Bush administration has resorted to the use of rogue intelligence units that respond not to a chain of command subject to oversight and regulation, but to the verbal -- hence deniable -- command of the Sec. of Defense and the President. Here's Hersh:
Of course, we already know about this administration's secretiveness, as well as it's willingness to engage in illegal activity. And the use of deniable and even unseemly backchannels for "les raisons d'état" is nothing new. But what Hersh is describing amounts to more than just a formal kidnapping and torture operation that serves "at the pleasure of the President". It suggests the creation of a parallel apparatus that operates so far off the radar that it exists outside the limits of institutional loyalty or control. This is tantamount to a personal secret police for use as the President sees fit. For the time being, as far as we know, it only operates abroad. But there's a reason why this sort of rogue force is so repugnant to democratic principles. That's because the logic behind it, that of the primacy of national security over the rule of law, is an expansive one. And the limits on it tend to grow weaker with time. It also raises a frightening question. What happens to Bush's secret police once he leaves office? Wednesday, June 20, 2007 Quote Of The Day"Above all, you must not take yourselves seriously. Your job, on the other hand, that's serious." --Nicolas Sarkozy, addressing the first ministerial meeting of his new government. (Translated from the French.) Wednesday, June 20, 2007 Out Of Breath... AlyzerHere's Nicolas Sarkozy's version of the events leading up to his now-famous G8 press conference:
Since I originally posted the video clip, the Belgian TV announcer who introduced it has apologized for suggesting Sarkozy was drunk. Because by all accounts, Sarkozy's actually a teetotaler. Which is somewhat surprising given his macho style. Somehow I could see him giving in, "just this once", so as to keep Putin from one-upping him. But his version is plausible, too... I suppose. Wednesday, June 20, 2007 The Shanghai ProjectOkay, so it wasn't in Shanghai. But the American nuclear factories weren't in Manhattan either. Anyway, here's what the working conditions for the Chinese teams that produced the country's first H-bomb were like:
That was forty years ago. You've come a long way, Baby. Wednesday, June 20, 2007 Kiss Of Death?I'm not sure whether this is good news or bad news for Fred Thompson's presidential hopes, but George "Macaca" Allen thinks he'd make a good candidate. Wednesday, June 20, 2007 Balkanizing The Middle EastUsually, when I skim The Weekly Standard, the urge I feel to respond to their most flagrant diatribes dies down into a half-hearted, "What's the use?" before I even get done reading the thing. The more outrageous the assertions, the more quickly the urge to respond evaporates. Oddly enough, though, an article that presents some unconvincing arguments against a policy proposal that I myself have trouble with, like Stephen Schwartz' critique of the Biden plan to partition Iraq, seems to do the trick. Schwartz' main problems with the plan are that it's based on a rosy assessment of the partition of the former Yugoslavia, and that it rewards Sunni bad behavior by creating a moral equivalency between aggressor and victim. I don't find his reasoning very compelling. My own problem with the plan has always been that its success depends on something that has never existed: A stable power-sharing arrangement among the three Iraqi constituencies. Whether across "soft" borders or within hard ones, if the willingness to set aside violence as a means of settling disputes isn't there, the plan won't work. And imposing a ceasefire from above will not only be near-impossible. It will further exacerbate Iraqi resentment of the occupying powers. That said, the entire region from Pakistan to the Horn of Africa seems to be reaching a critical mass of violent instability right now, due in large part to the Bush administration's policies. If spreading the chaos was part of the neocon plan to provoke a final region-wide confrontation, they overlooked one important detail: the continued instability works more to our enemies' advantage than to our own. The porous borders and perpetual battlefields are being exploited by global jihadists to recruit and train the next generation of terrorists to broaden the conflict to North Africa and Western Europe. Now, like it or not, the writing's on the wall: The era of inclusive solutions has come to a close. If you want a taste of things to come, just take a look at the world's response to the Palestinian civil war. And, as several people have already pointed out, there's an inherent contradiction in advocating for the partitioning of Gaza from the West Bank, while rejecting such a plan for Iraq. Or Lebanon, or Waziristan, or Somalia, et cetera ad infinitum. None of which makes the Biden plan any more likely to succeed. Just more likely to be implemented. Tuesday, June 19, 2007 Awkward ComparisonKevin Drum thinks Hillary Clinton's spot introducing her campaign theme song is pretty cute. Maybe. Seems a bit odd to me. The set-up plays off the Sopranos finale, with Hillary and Bill as the Sopranos. There's a menacing guy glancing over at them, Chelsea screeching her wheels against the curb outside, and Bill eating carrots instead of onion rings. Of course, it isn't the first time the Clintons have been compared to a crime family. Normally it's a tinfoil hat-wearing Arkansan making the comparison, though. Also, the consensus analysis of the Sopranos finale seems to be that Tony got whacked at the end. Which means the spot essentially portrays a former president and an aspiring one being targeted for a hit. Even worse, it plays it for laughs. Like I said, seems a bit odd to me. Tuesday, June 19, 2007 Hurricane CarterHe's certain to pay for it, but I suppose at this point Jimmy Carter is used to getting slammed every time he opens his mouth about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This time he's come out diametrically opposed to the developing conventional wisdom that rewarding Fatah and isolating Hamas is the only way to respond to the Palestinian civil war:
Carter also condemned the failure of the EU and US to recognize the Hamas government, which won elections in 2006 that were monitored by the Carter Center:
Of course, this comes pretty close to Daniel Levy's analysis over at Prospects for Peace. Something tells me Carter's going to take a bit more heat for it than Levy, though. Tuesday, June 19, 2007 Who's Dividing Whom?The first thing that occured to me while reading this Spiegel interview with Bahaa Balusha, the director of the Palestinian Authority's intelligence services, is that he's basically running through, word for word, the same talkingpoints that we've been hearing from American hawks for the past few months. He claims that a group of foreign jihadists helped direct Hamas' successful coup, that Hamas forces were trained in Iran, Syria and Lebanon "to eliminate political enemies using explosives and raids", and that Iran and Syria have deliberately provoked the violence in Gaza and Lebanon to make the US and Israel think twice before launching an expected attack. Oddly enough, these are exactly the kinds of things you'd expect someone who's reaching out to the Bush administration to say. Which doesn't necessarily mean they aren't true. It just means they make for a very convenient analysis. What struck me as more revealing, on the other hand, was his prediction that Hamas would now devolve into factional fighting and destroy itself within four months. More specifically, this:
Was the Fatah-Hamas unity government just a trap all along, forced on Haniyeh by the Saudis to destabilize an Iranian proxy? Maybe I've been following French politics too closely. But it sure made me wonder. Tuesday, June 19, 2007 Sarkozy And Le PenBefore leaving for an EU summit, it's customary for the French president to receive the heads of the major political parties, in addition to a few other respected political figures, for a consultation at the Elysées Palace. With one notable exception. In his twelve years in office, Jacques Chirac categorically refused to meet with Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the extreme right National Front party, despite the FN's legal standing as a legitimate political formation. So it's noteworthy that Nicolas Sarkozy has decided to meet with Le Pen tomorrow, in advance of the gathering of European heads of state to negotiate the EU's constitutional "mini-treaty". Sarkozy managed to attract a significant portion of Le Pen's followers during the presidential campaign by appropriating the FN's traditional themes of "national identity", immigration reform, and law & order rhetoric. The major question was whether this was just a clever, if cynical, electoral calculation, or whether he would attempt to maintain the new converts once in office. Sarkozy's EU policy is diametrically opposed to Le Pen's, who advocates withdrawing from the Union. So there's little chance that the meeting is anything but symbolic. But the symbolism is significant. Chirac's one ironclad rule in politics was, "Ne jamais composer avec l'extrême droite." (Never join with the extreme right.) It was less a question of formal alliances -- which were out of the question -- than a moral dictum, a sort of political ex-communication whose logic led him to refuse to debate with Le Pen during the 2002 run-off election. Sarkozy has obviously decided to take Le Pen off the Index. It remains to be seen if it's the first step in a progressive rehabilitation or simply a public relations move. Either way, it lends legitimacy to Le Pen and credibility to the image of a Sarkozy willing to pander to the extreme right. Monday, June 18, 2007 Moral RelativityWith all the recent headlines about Turkey and the PKK, this is the first time I've seen an actual interview with a PKK leader. Michael Howard of The Guardian spoke to Cemil Bayik, one of the PKK's two chiefs, who had this to say about his group:
He also denied that the group targeted civilians, and declared that they would welcome dialogue to resolve their conflict with Turkey. According to most accounts I've seen, Turkey's record on the Kurds is pretty bad, and although Ankara has undertaken some reforms (mainly due to EU pressure), they've been pretty half-hearted. On the other hand, the US and EU have both listed the PKK as a terrorist group. So there you have it. Looks like the final betting line on this one is "Pick 'em." By the way, talk about a byline: Michael Howard in the Qandil Mountains. Indeed. Monday, June 18, 2007 Quote Of The Day"The question you have to ask about the president is this: No matter when he learned -- and certainly he learned before it became public, and no matter how detailed it was -- is there any evidence that the president of the United States said to Rumsfeld, what's going on there, Don? Let's get an investigation going." -- Seymour Hersh discussing the Abu Ghraib scandal. Monday, June 18, 2007 When Nicolas Met CeciliaSpeaking of the candidates' romantic lives, that reminds me. The American press has mentioned Nicolas Sarkozy's "Brady Bunch" family, consisting of his two sons from a first marriage, his wife Cecilia's two daughters from a first marriage, and their son from their own marriage. And they've also mentioned their brief but highly publicized separation a couple years ago. What I've never seen mentioned is the circumstances under which they met. Here in France, if you choose to get married in a civil ceremony, you go down to city hall where the mayor performs the wedding. Which is what Cecilia did when, at the age of 27, she married 51-year old television star Jacques Martin in the city of Neuilly. The mayor of Neuilly at the time? 29-year old political wunderkind, Nicolas Sarkozy. As the official story goes, it wasn't until three years later that they met again and fell madly in love with each other. Each left their respective spouse, and they eventually married in 1996. People talk about Rudy Giuliani's marital baggage. But try getting that one over in American politics today. Chalk it up to l'exception française. Monday, June 18, 2007 Royal FlushThe other item making headlines today was the announcement that France's premier power couple, Ségolène Royal and Socialist Party chairman François Hollande, have separated. She immediately declared herself a candidate to succeed him when he steps down from his functions next year. Talk about a custody battle: "Oh, and honey? One more thing... I get the Party." Yikes. Monday, June 18, 2007 The Blue RippleThe major news this morning here in France was the surprising rebound of the Socialist Party in the second round of the legislative elections. While Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP still managed to win a 60% parliamentary majority, it was nowhere near the 75% tidal wave that had been forecast as late as a few days ago. There are a number of explanations, including the UMP coming down with a case of political tone-deafness between the two rounds. Talking about raising the sales tax by 5% in order to make up for a reduction in corporate payroll taxes, for instance, isn't exactly how you gather people behind an economic reform package. But the real message sent by French voters was that they still believe in the value of a strong opposition. They gave Sarkozy the comfortable margin he needs to pass his reform agenda. But by saving the Socialists from electoral meltdown, they guaranteed that someone would be around to keep him honest. Sunday, June 17, 2007 Think Locally, Act Globally?I'm not sure what to make of this survey from the recently released Pentagon report on security in Iraq. When asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement, "I feel safe and secure in my neighborhood", 77 percent of Iraqis replied that they agreed. On the other hand, only 32 percent agreed with the statement, "I feel safe and secure outside of my neighborhood." Here's a graphic breakdown of the results, province by province (p. 26): Unfortunately, the same question wasn't asked in any previous versions of the report, so there's no way to compare the results over time. A similar question that was asked both in this month's report and the one from March, though, was "How would you describe the tensions in your neighborhood today?" vs. "How would you describe the tension in the country today?" The contrast between perceptions of local tension and national tension was just as dramatic, even if both clearly trended towards less tension over the last six months. (The survey, which appeared in March's report, was conducted in January.) Now if this were a sign of serious progress against sectarian violence, you'd expect not only for the responses to trend positive, but for the gap between local and national perceptions to narrow significantly. And they haven't. Besides, as the number of daily casualties indicates, violence against civilians has remained steady since the surge, even if the Pentagon no longer categorizes it as sectarian. On the other hand, it could be confirmation that the partitioning of Iraq into ethnically cleansed communities -- within which one feels safe but outside of which one doesn't venture -- is already a fait accompli. And the fact that this has done nothing to reduce sectarian violence seems to undermine the argument, advanced notably by Joe Biden, that dividing the country into ethnically segregated regions will head off civil war. Saturday, June 16, 2007 Some Of His Best Friends...After a couple e-mails to the Romney campaign asking whether I was correct in concluding that of the 50 members of his Faith & Values Steering Committee, not a single one was Jewish, Muslim or Mormon, and if so, what the reasoning behind that was, I got this four-word response:
So there you have it, ladies and gentlemen. Mitt Romney's Faith & Values Steering Committee doesn't even include his own faith & values. Or Muslims'. Jews, on the other hand, are disproportionately over-represented compared to relative population (2% of the committee vs. 1.6% of the population). I've contacted the World Jewish Committee, the Anti-Defamation League, the Council on American-Islam Relations, and the Islamic Society of North America to see if they have any thoughts on the matter. I'll keep you posted. Friday, June 15, 2007 The Gitmo DelusionJonathan Hafetz calls attention to a confusion of categories resulting from the nature of the war on terror, which calls into question the way in which we determine and deal with enemy combatants. Basically, it boils down to the difference between enemies and suspects:
Terrorism by definition presents an epistemological challenge that conventional warfare doesn't. The first hurdle is being sure we know who the enemy is. Not in the abstract, on the level of terrorist organizations that we can identify as threats. But in the concrete expression, on the level of individual operatives where, besides the most visible few, there remains a doubt. A correlary effect of terrorism, therefore, is a form of justified paranoia. Doubt about who the actual enemy is leads to the perception of everyone as a potential threat. In aggravated cases of paranoia, of course, doubt gives way to a compensatory certainty, and everyone is perceived as an actual threat. Now consider that the mere suspicion of being an enemy combatant routinely leads to secret detention and torture, and that any evidence obtained through that torture is permissible in the CSRT (the hearings that determine whether someone is an enemy combatant). Knowing what we know about the unreliability of tortured-induced self-incrimination, this means that the mere suspicion of being an enemy combatant will most likely result in actually being classified one. It's a neat way to solve the problem of filling up our detention centers with people we call our enemies. It might even serve the useful function of providing enough "confirmed" terrorists to prevent a collective slide into full-scale, psychotic paranoia. But it does nothing to solve the problem actually presented by terrorism, that is, knowing for sure who our enemies are. The problem with militarizing the response to terrorism is that war is not an effective tool for determining competing truth claims. The American legal system, on the other hand, whether criminal or military, is. Until the enemy combatant review procedures are brought into line with traditional American jurisprudence, they will continue to function as a placebo, when what's needed is real justice. Friday, June 15, 2007 More Dept. Of Shameless PlugsFor anyone interested in French politics, I've got another article up over at The American Prospect. This one's about the legislative elections, and in particular, how Nicolas Sarkozy turned a hard-fought presidential victory into an overwhelming parliamentary majority in just over a month. Drop any feedback you might have in the Comments here. Friday, June 15, 2007 ChutzpahPresident Bush, thanking Lt. Gen. Martin Dempsey on his service in Iraq:
That makes me see red, and I've never even been in the military. I can only imagine how it makes a three-star general feel. Friday, June 15, 2007 Out Of The Ashes?Yesterday I expressed what seemed like a naive, desperate hope that something good might come out of the Hamas takeover of the Gaza Strip. But it looks like it wasn't so naive after all:
Now would be a really good time for a unilateral gesture of faith by the Israeli government. Not just because some good news from that part of the world would make a big difference right now. But also because those sorts of things pay dividends down the line. Friday, June 15, 2007 Quote Of The Day"Today everybody is with Hamas because Hamas won the battle. If Fatah had won the battle they'd be with Fatah. We are a hungry people, we are with whoever gives us a bag of flour and a food coupon." -- Yousef, a Palestinian in Gaza commenting on the Palestinian civil war. Thursday, June 14, 2007 Super Sarko Saves EuropeThis just in. Yesterday, Polish President Lech Kaczinski was threatening to veto the mini-treaty for institutional reform of the EU. This afternoon, he met with Nicolas Sarkozy. And wouldn't you know it, Kaczinski left the meeting "convinced" that the upcoming EU summit to decide the issue will be a "success":
So far they've only agreed to agree, without actually figuring out how. But it's a pretty dramatic turnaround for Kaczinski, who only a few days ago was describing Poland's demand for weighted voting as "worth dying for". So how does Sarkozy do it? Is it a magic potion of Gallic origin? A psychic channeling of Napoleon Bonaparte? For now the source of his Super Sarko powers is still a mystery. One thing is certain, though. As Kaczinski himself put it best, "France has a president with whom you can resolve a lot of problems." Thursday, June 14, 2007 The Six-Day WarThat Egyptian general who said that neither side in a Palestinian civil war could win a decisive victory seems to have been widely off the mark. At least in Gaza, anyway. According to Reuters, Hamas is basically conducting mopping up operations in the Gaza strip after routing Fatah security forces in six days of fighting. PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has dissolved the Hamas-Fatah unity government and declared a state of emergency. But "it was gun law not the constitution that held sway in Gaza." So after coming so close seven years ago to forging a two-state solution to the Arab-Palestinian tragedy, it now looks likely that there will, in fact, be a three-state nightmare: Israel surrounded by two Palestinian entities, one moderate and the other militant. Counterintuitively, this might actually simplify the situation. The Israelis now have every incentive to deal with Abbas and turn the West Bank into a "model" of what an Israeli-Palestinian arrangement could look like, the better to isolate Hamas in Gaza. And Abbas seems to have more room to iron out a final status agreement now that he no longer needs to worry about throwing red meat to the militants. Here's hoping, anyhow. Thursday, June 14, 2007 Square Root Of SarkoHere's one for wonks and political scientists. The stripped down treaty that the EU is trying to substitute for its failed constitution includes a "double majority" voting system. To pass, a measure has to be approved by at least 55% of the member states representing at least 65% of the EU population. In practice, it means that certain very big countries (read: England, France, Germany, and Italy) can't realistically be left out of any majority, but neither can the mass of very small countries. The problem is that the medium-sized countries (read: Poland and Spain) can neither block a big-small majority nor force through a medium-small one. Which is why Poland has made a counter-offer. To pass, a measure still needs 55% of the members states' approval. But the population majority is calculated using the square roots of member states' populations. In case you're wondering how that weights the results, consider the comparative populations of France (60 million) and Poland (39 million). Now consider the square roots: 7,745 vs. 6,244. Poland has promised a veto unless the population majority is re-weighted, threatening to de-rail the urgently needed institutional reforms contained in the treaty. But not to worry. Super Sarkozy is in Warsaw as we speak, ready to work his negotiating magic. Thursday, June 14, 2007 Mad LibsHere's a thought-provoking excerpt from a USA Today interview with Iran's top general:
Ooops. My bad. That's an interview with Lt. Gen. Petraeus. And he was talking about Iran's influence in Iraq. Funny how the answer makes sense from both sides of the border, though. Thursday, June 14, 2007 Tort ReformThis guy needs to be tossed off the bench and disbarred. Plus punitive damages for filing a frivolous lawsuit and causing mental anguish. What a prick. Thursday, June 14, 2007 Whose Faith?What's revealing about Mitt Romney's new "Faith and Values" Steering Committee is that there isn't a single Jew on the list. The only two who might have passed the initial "Jewdar" test were John Pudner and Camille Solberg, but he's the chair of the RNC's Catholic Task Force, and she's a Hispanic activist who writes for the Wisconsin Christian News. No Muslims, either, for that matter. Or Mormons. Or Buddhists. Obviously, a more accurate name for this group would be the "Pandering to Evangelical Christians (and Token Catholics)" Steering Committee. I keep waiting for the announcement that Romney's campaign is just a hoax, like that Dutch reality tv program about the kidney donor. Or even better, a conceptual art piece. It would work so much better for me that way. Update: John Daley wonders whether it's possible to know people's religions from a list of names. Fair enough. I did some googling, and it turns out that Jay Sekulow actually was Jewish, until he joined Jews for Jesus in college. I'll update if I turn up anything else. Thursday, June 14, 2007 Bride Of Franken's TimeIt occured to me after dashing off this post (about Al Franken's comic persona serving as cover for his unconvincing political persona) that I never found Al Franken's comic persona very funny. That is, I was always left with the sense that what he'd done could have been funny, even that it should have been funny, but that in the end it was not, in fact, funny. The potential was there, though, so I kept waiting for him to do something funny. The TPM video interview is a small sample to go on, but as far as first impressions go, that's exactly how I'd characterize his political persona. It could be convincing, it maybe even should be convincing, but in the end, it's not really that convincing. Wednesday, June 13, 2007 PrioritiesYou might remember Jack Idema, the ex-Green Beret convicted of operating a private prison in Afghanistan where he allegedly tortured handpicked "terror suspects". Apparently he was released from an Afghan prison two weeks ago as part of a general amnesty issued by Afghan President Hamid Karzai. And as if the story was lacking in the creepy department, he wanted to stay in Afghanistan, but couldn't because of the conditions of his release. But here's the kicker. According to documents filed in a court case by the American consul in Kabul, Idema left the country for "an unknown destination". Let me get this straight. Alberto Gonzales wants to listen in on my phone conversations. But a guy who entered a warzone illegally, conducted gonzo counter-terrorism operations, ran a private prison where he tortured his "suspects", wanted to stay incountry after three years in an Afghan prison (does anyone remember Midnight Express?) -- in other words, the kind of guy I want the government to keep tabs on -- that guy just walks off into the sunset? What am I not getting? Wednesday, June 13, 2007 Franken's TimeJosh Marshall and Al Franken, separated at birth? Maybe it's just the glasses. The other thing that occured to me watching the video interview is that Franken's comic persona offers him constant cover in the event that he says something kind of lame or unsophisticated. There were a couple of times where I couldn't tell if he was deadpanning or choking, and I just chalked it off to him being Al Franken. Whereas if it had been someone else, I probably would have thought he had just said something kind of lame or unsophisticated. Wednesday, June 13, 2007 Post-Occupation PreoccupationVia Matthew Yglesias come Spencer Ackerman's objections to a post-occupation force in Iraq:
Yglesias makes a good point of his own:
I would add that this kind of military presence also requires an enormous logistical and monetary investment. The very kind of investment that governments get tempted to protect by interfering in the internal affairs of the host country. Which in turn reinforces the idea of a meddling occupying power. So yes, there are problems with this approach, but I still think it's the least bad option. I'd previously suggested that "disengaged bases" would only work under two conditions: The time horizon would have to be shortterm, and the rules of engagment would have to be strictly limited to border integrity and humanitarian crises. I'll add a third, to cover Ackerman's, Yglesias' and my objections: That they be under the mandate and command of the UN or some other multi-lateral organisation. Not just a bogus Coalition of the Willing. A real peacekeeping force. Update: Kevin Drum agrees with Matthew and Spencer and thinks leaving any residual force is a bad idea. Tuesday, June 12, 2007 Full CircleToday President Bush gave an address at the dedication of the Victims of Communism Memorial in Washington D.C. Not surprisingly, after running through a list of communist atrocities, he made sure to mention this century's equivalent, terrorists:
Now it seems pretty clear to me that this is a reference to, among other things, "enhanced interrogation techniques". Maybe not explicitly, but in the sense that people who support their use would probably include them in any list of things that reflect our strength and resolve in the fight against terror. Maybe they formulate it like Bush's terrorists, that opponents of torture are weak and lack resolve, but the meaning is the same. Either way, what's important to remember is that in order to put these techniques into practice, that is, in order to show the terrorist suspects we'd captured that we had the necessary resolve to torture them, we used the same Soviet-era prisons in Poland and Romania that created the victims Bush was memorializing today. Go figure. Tuesday, June 12, 2007 Everything Goes BlackI don't really have a dog in this fight, since the last time I saw an episode of the Sopranos was back in 2000, before I left the States. But according to this post at The New York Nerd, whether you liked it as a concept or not, the whole "nothing got resolved" angle doesn't stand up to obsessive fan scrutiny. Apparently, Tony got whacked. Tuesday, June 12, 2007 Sleight Of HandAny magician worth his salt knows the importance of misdirection to a successful trick. If you don't want people to pay attention to what's going on over here, give them something to think about over there. Well, with pressure growing from the army and public opinion to mount a cross-border incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan gave every indication today that he's an apprentice magician:
For its part, the PKK has reportedly offered a ceasefire if Turkey calls off military operations on the border. I wouldn't hold my breath on that one though. Tuesday, June 12, 2007 High FiveApparently former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami would do well to get one of those temporary marriages before he goes on his next diplomatic visit. He was just criticized in the Iranian press for shaking hands with women and girls on his latest trip to Italy. The paper, one of Iran's most conservative, refused to name the internet site where the photos were seen "...to avoid propagating corruption in society." That's a relief. But I wonder... Would wearing gloves make a difference? Tuesday, June 12, 2007 BloodlettingThe violence that's been simmering in Gaza for the past few days broke out into fullscale battles, with the Hamas militia mounting coordinated attacks on Fatah-controlled security headquarters. PA President Mahmoud Abbas called for an immediate ceasefire, and Fatah ministers have suspended their participation in the unity government until the violence ends. According to the Egyptian General who's been trying to negotiate a truce, neither side has the weapons or capability to decisively win the civil war that will result if this continues to escalate. In other words, this is all just a lethal game of chicken where neither side can win, but neither will stand down. Tuesday, June 12, 2007 Convenient ChaosThe US program of extraordinary renditions and coercive interrogations continues, this time in Ethiopia. According to Der Spiegel, "terror suspects" fleeing the chaos of Somalia were captured by American, Somali and Kenyan forces and later transferred to detention centers in Addis Abbaba. While the US government confirmed that some suspects were interrogated in Ethiopia, the centers are allegedly being run by Ethiopians in order to conceal American involvement. Tuesday, June 12, 2007 The Squeaky WheelIf the US eventually does get around to dealing with the PKK problem, either directly or by proxy through the Kurds, this article on Turkish relations with Iran might explain why. It might explain the EU's current charm offensive towards Ankara as well. Monday, June 11, 2007 Good News Of The DayA judge has voided the ten-year prison sentence given to Genarlow Wilson, a 21-year old Georgia man who was convicted of receiving oral sex when he was 17 from a consenting 15-year old girl. The State Attorney General has filed a motion to appeal with a request for an expedited ruling. Wilson has already spent two years in jail. Hopefully this decision will be upheld and he'll be out soon. Monday, June 11, 2007 Two Out Of ThreeAnd then, every so often, public opinion gets ahead of geopolitical gamesmanship. Like when a funeral for three Turkish soldiers killed in a PKK cross-border attack turns into a 10,000-person strong anti-government rally. The government's inability to stop the PKK attacks, which have killed at least two dozen Turkish soldiers since May 24, led mourners in three Turkish cities to call for its resignation. With the Turkish military already advocating a major incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan, the only thing that seems to be standing in the way is Prime Minister Erdogan's insistence that Parliament be consulted. Monday, June 11, 2007 Quote Of The Day"The government cannot subject al-Marri to indefinite military detention. For in the United States, the military cannot seize and imprison civilians -- let alone imprison them indefinitely." --Judge Diana Gribbon Motz in a ruling ordering the release of Ali Saleh Kahlah al-Marri from military custody. Monday, June 11, 2007 Two ReportsHere's a description of the CIA's High Value Detainee (HVD) interrogation program from the Pentagon's website:
Here's how the Council of Europe's Dick Marty described the program in a report based on interviews with former interrogators and detainees (pp. 52-53):
As Andrew Sullivan pointed out in a post detailing the origin of the term "enhanced interrogation techniques", even the Gestapo took care to codify, that is to legalize, torture. Are we the moral equivalent of the Gestapo? Of course not. Did we legalize and apply torture? Yes. Monday, June 11, 2007 Pastor In ChiefDavid Kuo says Dems need to stop trying to out-Jesus the GOP. Instead, they should get specific on faith-based issues and be honest about where they disagree with so-called "values" voters if they want to stand a chance of picking off the ones who can be won over. I suppose he's right from a political standpoint. Still, I wonder... Maybe politicians should just stick to politics? Monday, June 11, 2007 Just The Three Of UsAccording to this article in The New Anatolian, Turkey has begun coordinating its military response to PKK attacks, including shelling of PKK positions inside Iraqi territory, with Iran. That might explain the end of the "See no evil, hear no evil" approach on the part of the Iraqi government, which presented a diplomatic letter of protest to the Turkish ambassador in response to this weekend's artillary barrage, which some military analysts say could only have been carried out from Iranian, and not Turkish, positions. Counter-intuitively, the protest might actually be a good sign, a way for the US and Iraq to signal to Turkey that they're willing to play hardball against the PKK now, so long as the Iranians aren't involved. Monday, June 11, 2007 This Side Of The HorizonJust a quick postscript to yesterday' post defending the idea of basing American troops in Iraq after a significant drawdown. My support for the idea would be contingent on three conditions:
In all likelihood, I'm being too naive by dismissing the Bush administration's Korean analogy too quickly. So just to be clear, I am not supporting the idea of permanent, over the horizon American military bases in Iraq. Monday, June 11, 2007 Endless CampaignMost of the disadvantages of starting the presidential election campaign two years ahead of the presidential election have already been identified. But there's one I haven't seen mentioned. In theory, an election is decided at least in part by the positions a candidate takes on the issues. But the issues this country will be facing in November 2008, as well as the political landscape within which they'll be addressed, will undoubtedly have evolved between now and then. Which means that as things stand, the candidates are really campaigning on hypotheticals. The consequence is not only to reinforce the importance of personality as opposed to policy as a criterion of selection. It also changes the sorts of policies that get debated, with the emphasis placed on exactly the sorts of longstanding, major-baggage issues -- ie. healthcare, foreign policy magic bullets, and the like -- that have the least chance of getting through the legislative process intact (see Comprehensive Immigration Reform). Sunday, June 10, 2007 All About The CheddarI'm not sure I understand what the problem is with Saudi Prince Bandar skimming $2 billion off the top of an arms deal between the British firm BAE and the Saudi government. Unless it's that Bandar used a government account instead of a personal one to launder the money. And, frankly, who cares if the British government was in the know? As a Dutch ex-pat friend who spent alot of time in the Persian Gulf put it, That's the cost of doing business with the Saudis. To hear him tell it, you shouldn't even bother showing up unless you've got the briefcase full of Benjamins. And that's just to introduce yourself. Oh, and, by the way... Try turning down $2 billion smackeroos someday. Just try it... Nah, I don't think so. Sunday, June 10, 2007 Going LongThe idea's been making the rounds for the past week or so, ever since President Bush compared Iraq to S. Korea. But Tom Ricks' WaPo article seems to make it official: the Pentagon brass is putting the finishing touches on a plan to maintain a longterm military presence based in Iraq after the bulk of American forces are drawn down. The timeframe for drawing down the lion's share of the troops just happens to be -- surprise, surprise -- the middle to end of 2008, ie. just in time to influence the presidential election. Now, setting aside the Rovian timeframe and the boneheaded comparisons to the Korean Peninsula, the idea itself happens to be a good one, or at least the least bad one -- and I don't say that just because I happened to propose it back in February. It effectively ends what's known as the Iraq War by removing American forces from the line of fire of Iraq's civil war. It does so while securing our strategic interests in the country (namely, guaranteeing Iraq's territorial integrity and preventing a collapse into failed statehood). And it provides an insurance policy against any fullscale massacres and sectarian bloodletting that might follow a precipitous withdrawal. Critics have pointed out that our presence catalyzes the Sunni insurgency and impedes the process of national reconciliation needed to put an end to sectarian violence. I would argue that by turning day to day governance and security issues over to Iraqis, they'll have their hands too full to worry about our garrisons tucked as far out of sight as possible. If not, the day will come sooner rather than later when an Iraqi government asks us to leave. So be it. Hopefully those who oppose the war (and I count myself among them) will recognize this as a way to end it. Probably the quickest and safest way, too, both for American troops and Iraqi civilians. Sunday, June 10, 2007 Nancy & LauraFunny how when Nancy Pelosi wore a veil to meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad, it was a sign of meekness, diffidence, and surrender. But I don't recall hearing a word about this photo on the White House website:
You'd think that if the President can address the Pope as "Sir" instead of "Your Holiness" then Laura could ditch the veil. And in case you're wondering whether it was just part of the snazzy outfit, here's the First Lady later that day, meeting with the Italian President's wife. Sunday, June 10, 2007 La Vague BleueThe results for the first-round French legislative elections were just announced, and as expected, Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP came out the big winner: 43% of the vote, compared to 35% for the combined left (28% for the Socialists), and only 7% for Bayrou's Mouvement Démocrate. Although there will be runoffs next Sunday in any races where a candidate didn't win a clear majority, that should translate into 440-470 seats for the UMP, compared to only 60-90 for the PS. Abstentions, as expected, set a record. Sunday, June 10, 2007 Electoral HangoverIt looks like the stress of last month's presidential election took its toll on the French. According to Le Figaro, the level of abstention in the first-round Parliamentary elections is projected to set a record of 37%. It's not like there's been a whole lot of suspense about the outcome. The Socialist Party is in disarray, most of Bayrou's centrist incumbents abandoned his new political party, and Sarkozy and his government have made a strong impression in their first few weeks in office. The question has been how big a majority Sarkozy will have to work with. By the looks of things, the answer is a substantial one. Sunday, June 10, 2007 Moqtada And The KurdsSince he came out of hiding in the end of May, Moqtada al-Sadr has tried to re-position himself as a leader of national unification. Until this weekend, that consisted mainly of reaching out to the Sunni insurgency in an effort to undermine the governing coalition of Nouri al-Maliki. But today al-Sadr showed both his political skill and opportunism by taking advantage of the conflict between Turkey and the PKK to broaden his nationalist appeal. Here's how he condemned the Turkish bombardment of Iraqi Kurdistan, according to an AP dispatch:
Meanwhile, Le Monde quoted him as declaring, "The Kurdish people are part of Iraq, and it is our duty to defend them." (Translated from the French.) It's a clever move, not only because it reinforces his new image of a leader who transcends the sectarian divide. It also "Iraqifies" the problem at a time when the US was trying to localize it to the Kurdish north. What's more, the added attention can only exacerbate what is a thorny issue for everyone involved, but especially for the US. Should the crisis escalate, it will ultimately force our hand: either we choose sides between the Turkish and the Kurds, or else we wade into the middle of another shooting war in Iraq. Either way it adds problems to America's Iraqi plate, which only strengthens Moqtada's hand. |
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